**This is an edited version of an email originally sent to Ann Arbor Farmers Market vendors on 4/10/20**
Dear wonderful farmers, producers, and farmers market vendors,
I hope you are well and hanging in there during this time of uncertainty.
This is an email about the course of the local virus outbreak in Michigan, our 2020 market forecast, and actionable steps you can take to stay afloat this year while the economy is shut down or unstable.
As you know, the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market is a cultural institution. It's one we want to protect and see thrive. But, even when the market reopens this year, sales will be slower because of COVID-19. It is important that you understand this now so you can adjust your business, curb this year's losses, and stay afloat for the future.
The Story of Our Outbreak in Michigan
The first positive cases were found in Michigan on March 10th. For the next two weeks, the number of cases doubled, on average, every day. Schools closed March 16th, and the Stay Home order was issued March 23rd because the virus was spreading too quickly for hospitals, medical staff, and supplies to save the 15% of infected people who need hospital care.
As the virus takes up to two weeks to incubate, many Michiganders did not know they had the virus while they were out shopping and working before the shut down and, unfortunately, the virus spread to many people. The good news is that the data shows the Stay Home order is working. Monday, April 5th marked two weeks from Stay Home. All people infected before the lockdown have now either developed symptoms, not developed symptoms, been hospitalized, recovered, or died. We still have large numbers of new infected cases everyday, but the rate of the growth is slowing down!
At the new, lower rate of spread, it takes seven days for the number of positive cases in the state to double. This is giving our hospitals a better chance at saving the lives of infected people who can’t breath.
What to Expect from Local Customers when the Farmer's Market does Reopen
The slow spread is really good for all of us-- our families, our friends, our customers. For those who are becoming ill enough to need hospital care in Washtenaw County, we still have enough beds and healthy medical staff to care for them. As of April 10th, only 15 people in the county had died so far. That means our usual market customers are doing a really good job of staying home.
The reality is that slow spread of the virus will have a big impact on the number of customers who feel safe to come to our market for all or most of the 2020 season. If cases continue to double slowly in Michigan-- only every 7 days-- we won’t run out of hospital beds in Washtenaw this month. But in May we'll be hitting the phase of all-out crisis locally and we will not be able to return to free public life.
If there are tent hospitals set up on University of Michigan athletic fields, most of 13,000 customers who usually attend Saturday market are not going to crowd themselves into our tight market space just two miles away. Our customers, many of whom are 65+ or who have underlying chronic diseases, are not going to feel safe at market. Even if the City, which has been very proactive on matters of public health during the virus, allows the market to reopen, the informed people of Washtenaw County may be choosing to order from places that allow for contactless curbside pickup.
This will last beyond May. It is good that the virus is spreading slowly, but it is going slowly. We know from other pandemics in history that when a region opens its economy back up, viral spread will quicken. This means different regions, states, and cities in the US will need to practice physical distancing all summer long, and there may be repeat waves of peak spread and public shutdowns.
The outbreak will end when either 1) a vaccine or treatment is widely available or 2) most people have had the virus and recovered. Either of these will certainly take longer than three months. It may take as long as one year. But either course will give us herd immunity that will give us freedom to move around in society. It will end! But the time frame is longer than we hoped.
How to Help Your Business during this Season-Long Pause on the Economy: Actionable Steps You Can Take Now
Action 1: If you sell food, soap, or pet food, try to enroll in some sort of online sales platform now. Here is the most current list of other local farms who have online ordering already in place: https://www.localfoodsummit.org/covid19/eat-local If you already have a good relationship with anyone on this list, reach out to them personally and ask if you can participate. If not, google Barn2Door, Harvie, Farmigo, Local Food Marketplace, or HappyCSA. All of these platforms specialize in helping small farms sell to retail customers.
Action 2: Take advantage of stimulus act programs.
Consider applying under the expanded guidelines for unemployment and/or if you have employees, consider the PPP loan program.
Farmers are now eligible to apply for EIDL which comes with a $10K emergency advance grant.
Action 3: Sell gift cards online for your farm or business. Square is a nice system because it will allow your customers to swipe a card at your market booth and it will automatically deduct from their balance so you don't have to do as much bookkeeping.
Action 4: Tell your story. If you don't have an online presence, consider beginning a website, a Facebook page, or an Instagram account. Begin collecting email addresses of customers, friends, and family so you can tell your story and communicate about what you grow, raise, or produce and how you are selling it. Having a community around your business will be protective beyond the pandemic. The more connection people have with you and the services you are providing the community, the more mutually supportive you can be. If you need help with this, there are many digitally-savvy college students in our community volunteering to help. Consider joining the Washtenaw County Mutual Aid + Resources group on Facebook and request help. There are many similar groups on Facebook.
Action 5: Actively build a mindset of personal resilience and business resilience. If you are a small business owner, you are already very strong. You have done many difficult things in your life and made it through them. Research shows that focusing on the things you can do each day and working toward those goals will help you feel better in this out-of-control time.
….
Kristen Muehlhauser, Farmer and Registered Nurse
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Raindance Organic Farm exists to serve our community by growing great organic produce and by connecting children and adults with the beauty of nature and the gifts of wellness! It was founded in 2017 by a first-generation female farmer and her supportive family.